Gold prices are most likely to remain volatile at a high level through the September quarter 2008, said a research report by Commonwealth Bank of Australia. The volatility in gold prices is being buffeted by shifting perceptions of the outlook for the US economy and US Dollar (USD) with the USD likely to remain fragile through the September quarter, the report added.
“We expect the gold price to trend lower over the latter part of 2008 as the USD gets more solid footings, and to continue to trend lower over the first half of 2009 as investor support for gold wanes,” said the report.
The report also mentioned that increased incomes in key gold markets should enable a recovery in jewellery gold demand, but that is at a lower price point than the current prevailing prices.
The CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) Commitment of Traders report showed that speculators (noncommercial positions) increased long and short positions in gold (futures) in the week ended 24 June 2008. Speculators modestly increased their net long position.
The latest consolidated financial statements for Eurosystem central banks gold sales showed a modest decline in Eurosystem central bank gold holdings in the week ended 27 June as a result of transactions, the Commonwealth Bank report said.